- The legendary investor Warren Buffett avoids making predictions, but we've gathered 12 of his best guesses about cryptocurrency, table tennis, and even his own death.
- We've detailed each prediction and assessed its accuracy in the slideshow below.
The legendary investor Warren Buffett knows better than to make predictions.
"We have no idea — and never have had — whether the market is going to go up, down, or sideways in the near- or intermediate-term future," he wrote in his 1986 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
Yet the Sage of Omaha couldn't resist making a few guesses about the future over the years. We've gathered 12 of his most intriguing predictions and assessed their accuracy in the slideshow below.
1. Cryptocurrencies
Prediction:
"In terms of cryptocurrencies...I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending,"Buffett said in an interview wih CNBC in January 2018. "When it happens or how or anything else, I don't know."
He added: "If I could buy a five-year put on every one of the cryptocurrencies, I'd be glad to do it but I would never short a dime's worth."
Outcome:
Buffett has been right about cryptocurrencies so far. At the time of his prediction, bitcoin traded above $14,000. The cryptocurrency slumped below $4,000 by the end of 2018, and it currently trades around $5,200.
2. Flat Earth
Prediction:
"Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish,"Buffett claimed in a speech at Columbia Business school in May 1984.
Outcome:
Buffett may have been making a point about stubborn denialism in financial markets, but his prediction about so-called "Flat Earthers" was correct — they've enjoyed a resurgence in recent years.
3. Berkshire Hathaway
Prediction:
"It is fitting that the visit of Halley's Comet coincided with this percentage gain: neither will be seen again in my lifetime,"Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders after the conglomerate grew its net worth by 48.2% in 1985.
He also predicted the 23.2% compounded annual growth in the company's book value per share that year was "another percentage that will not be repeated."
Outcome:
It took nearly 20 years for Buffett to prove himself wrong on the first count. Berkshire Hathaway's net worth jumped 48.3% in 1998, although that was largely because the company issued shares for acquisitions. "Normally, a gain of 48.3% would call for handsprings — but not this year," he told investors.
Buffett's second prediction was way off the mark. Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share rose by 23.3% in the next year, 1986. It has also grown by at least 23.2% in more than 10 other years since 1985.
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